Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1672 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by only 7 points.

The decline in volatility and trading volumes in the currency market was driven by the lack of significant data from the Eurozone and new geopolitical signals. After yesterday's sharp surge, stagnation has set in: major currency pairs are showing only minor fluctuations, and traders, lacking new drivers for decision-making, are adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach. Under such conditions, EUR/USD is also trading within a narrow range, reacting only to slight changes in sentiment.

Next, attention will focus on revised U.S. GDP data for Q4 2025, as well as the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. The analytical block will conclude with reports on changes in U.S. consumer spending and personal income. The release of these reports has significant potential to shift sentiment in global financial markets. In particular, updated GDP figures will provide a comprehensive picture of the U.S. economy at the end of last year. The pace of GDP growth—whether accelerating or slowing—will directly influence expectations for future Federal Reserve actions. The PCE index is equally important, as it is the Fed's key measure of inflationary pressure. The inflation level reflected in PCE will be a decisive factor in interest rate decisions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, euro purchases are possible upon reaching the 1.1689 level (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1717. At 1.1717, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Euro growth today can only be expected after very weak U.S. data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1670 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward 1.1689 and 1.1717 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1670 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1639, where I intend to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if strong U.S. data is released.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1689 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1670 and 1.1639 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based solely on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.