Analysis GBP/USD 5M

The GBP/USD pair posted a strong rise on Thursday, which, in our view, fully matches the overall fundamental and macro backdrop. Although the two most important U.S. reports on Thursday were positive for the dollar, sterling rose for most of the day. We remind readers that on the daily and weekly timeframes, price bounced off the lower boundaries of the sideways channels two weeks ago, giving sterling the technical potential to rise at least to 1.3650. Also recall the long-term uptrend that began in 2022 remains intact. In 2026, the dollar's moves have been mostly short-term pullbacks in the longer-term context. Without the war with Iran and its consequences, sterling would likely already be trading well above 1.40 — and we believe the conflict merely gave the dollar a temporary respite before another decline.

Technically, sterling continues to form a new uptrend. Price did not close below the Senkou Span B line, so the bullish trend remains valid. Sterling's further rise doesn't require fresh fundamental support, though the Bank of England is also likely to begin hiking next week, adding tailwind.

On the 5-minute timeframe, six buy signals formed on Thursday. Price bounced four times from the 1.3301–1.3309 area, then cleared the critical line and ultimately held above 1.3369–1.3377. Traders could have opened a single long position and held it, since no valid sell signals appeared. Sterling may continue its upward movement.

COT report

COT reports for the pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated selling for several months. The net position is negative despite the long-term uptrend persisting. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that dollar demand remains high in 2026. The U.S.–Iran war is formally on pause but could resume soon. The Fed's changed monetary stance also supports the dollar, and the ascending trend line was breached; however, it was broken amid a flat, so we do not consider the uptrend complete.

In the long term, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly TF. Trade tensions will persist in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies aim, directly and indirectly, to weaken the U.S. currency. The long-term uptrend remains intact. According to the latest COT report (dated October 20), the "Non-commercial" group opened 10,000 BUY contracts and closed 16,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 26,500 contracts over the week.

Analysis GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues to form a logical, orderly uptrend. On the daily and weekly timeframes, price cleared liquidity from recent lows and remained inside sideways channels. Therefore, the pound is expected to rise at least to the 1.3650 level, the upper boundary of the daily sideways channel. Reasons for the pound's rise are not required, just as reasons were not required for the dollar's rise over the past one and a half to two months.

For October 30 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3277) and the Kijun-sen (1.3339) can also provide signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, so traders should account for this when determining trading signals.

No important events or releases are scheduled in the U.K. or the U.S. today, so traders will have little to react to intraday. Nevertheless, we believe the GBP/USD upmove can continue.

Summary of the above analysis:

Traders can consider targets for short positions near 1.1115 if price fails to decisively clear the Senkou Span B line. If price holds above Senkou Span B, consider long targets at 1.1221 and 1.1274.

Explanations for the illustrations:

• Price support and resistance levels (resistance/support) — thick red lines around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines — Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels — thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines — trendlines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts — the size of the net position of each trader category.