Gold is once again trading around $4,460 per ounce. After a 0.6% drop at the start of the session, the metal partially recovered, but it remains under pressure. The familiar picture emerges: another cycle of escalation in the Middle East, conflicting signals regarding negotiations, and gold is squeezed between two narratives, without finding a clear direction.

The news backdrop yesterday was especially convoluted. Trump expressed optimism about reaching a temporary peace agreement with Iran, contradicting Iranian media reports of a suspension in negotiations due to hostilities in Lebanon. However, almost simultaneously, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain—these were intercepted or failed en route—while US forces struck new targets on Qeshm Island.

It is clear that the metal remains in a downtrend, indicating instability in sentiment—and this is not accidental. Since the beginning of the war, gold has lost about 15% and moves in inverse correlation with oil: rising energy prices amplify inflation expectations, pushing rates upward and pressuring the non—interest—bearing metal.

Considering that rates in the US are certain to rise by the end of the year—given that the recently published data on the US labor market showed a surge in job openings to a nearly two-year high—all of this strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated outright that the central bank may soon need to take action against heightened inflation. The higher the rates, the lower the value of gold.

Silver lost 0.1% to trade at $75 per ounce. Platinum remained stable, while palladium gained 0.2%.

Regarding the current technical situation for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,481. This will allow them to target $4,546, above which breaking through will be quite challenging. The furthest target will be around $4,607. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at $4,432. If they succeed, a range breakdown will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions, pushing gold down to a low of $4,372, with the prospect of a further decline to $4,304.