Donald Trump keeps insisting the Middle East war will end soon, diesel prices worldwide will "collapse," and he is the best president in the country's history. While the world pays a double price for energy, the White House leader is preparing a new military operation against Iran—apparently hoping to end the conflict quickly in his own original way. At the same time, Trump openly insulted Norway, which he claims maliciously denied him the Nobel Peace Prize even though Norway is not the prize giver. Trump was offended by Oslo and says he was unfairly denied the award because he "ended eight wars." Eight wars, four of which never began and two of which continue.

I should remind readers that two years ago, when Donald Trump was not yet president, he promised to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict in 24 hours. Then 24 hours became a week, then a month, and by October 2026 Trump had promised to end the Ukraine-Russia war for two years. When the president was reminded of his 24-hour pledge, he replied that he had been misunderstood and had spoken figuratively. That, in a nutshell, is all you need to know about the American leader's promises.

If Trump promises a quick end to the war with Iran, prepare for a prolonged war. It is noteworthy that Donald Trump does not actually want to wage a Middle East war. Pentagon weapons stocks are shrinking fast and will take years to replenish. Trump understands well that new strikes on Iran will change nothing. Yet the US president cannot back down, even though he would very much like to. He was the initiator of the campaign, arguing that "Iran already pointed its nuclear missiles at the US and other countries." Now Trump cannot simply exit the conflict unless there are guarantees of complete destruction of Iran's nuclear arsenal.

And there is no doubt Iran still has nuclear feedstock and enrichment capacity. In the months of relative pause Iran almost certainly used the time to move nuclear materials and disperse them to the most inaccessible, secret locations. So Trump may launch new strikes, but that will not achieve his stated goals. In my view the Middle East conflict will not only continue for a long time; it will grow. Israel, Yemen, the Houthis, and Saudi Arabia are already drawn into the fighting. In coming weeks other Gulf states may join.

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EUR/USD analysis. October 30. EUR starts recovering?

Wave picture for EUR/USD

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, the instrument remains within a global corrective A-B-C-D-E segment. However, this structure now looks fully formed and may be finishing. In my view this is a good time not only to buy the euro but also to expect a full bullish leg of the trend. On the higher timeframe, one should expect a rise to at least the 1.17–1.18 area. The failed attempt to break 1.1126, equal to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement (lower chart, higher timeframe), also points to market readiness to buy.

Wave picture for GBP/USD

The wave picture for GBP/USD has become fairly clear. Charts show a distinct A-B-C corrective structure that may be complete. A similar structure in EUR/USD may also be finishing. If that reading holds, the pound has completed the decline that troubled many traders. Sterling could then not just build a corrective wave but move into a full bullish leg with targets above the peaks of waves B and D—i.e., above the 1.37 area. I think now is a good time to form long positions.

Core principles of my analysis:

1) Wave structures should be simple and comprehensible. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.

2) If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.

3) There is never 100% certainty about direction; always use protective stop-loss orders.

4) Wave analysis can be combined with other methods and trading strategies.