The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has officially left the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), severing ties with oil alliances after exiting OPEC+. No longer constrained by cartel rules, the UAE intend to raise output. OPEC countries have voiced similar intentions — but with the Strait of Hormuz closed, they cannot fully act. The world market is now heavily dependent on US shipments, but the price of that dependence is draining US storage tanks.
Despite assertions of "victory," the 47th president's approval ratings show a catastrophic decline. A Washington Post poll finds Americans judge the results of the "Epic Fury" through the prism of their gas and supermarket bills:
Only six months remain until the midterm congressional elections. While Trump claims "the cards are in my hands," the data show that Democrats are unusually motivated. For voters, a "victory" in distant Iran pales next to $4 gas and depleted national reserves. Trump tries to convince the country of triumph, but the numbers suggest the US is fighting a war of attrition in which the White House could be the biggest casualty.
Official Pentagon figures estimating the Iran campaign at $25 billion are increasingly viewed skeptically by independent analysts. Bloomberg's calculations show that direct operational costs in the first 39 days exceeded $14 billion, of which $8 billion went to replenishing precision-guided munitions. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi cites a far larger figure — $100 billion — arguing the US understates costs by a factor of four and omits catastrophic aircraft wear, the loss of air-defense systems, and the cost of thousands of interceptors used to repel volleys from more than 1,850 Iranian ballistic missiles. Independent experts agree the real cost of operations amid a total strait blockade and "rocket exhaustion" could reach $2 billion per day.
Donald Trump has shifted from geopolitical threats to direct economic aggression against allies. Claiming the EU has breached a trade deal, the president announced tariffs on European passenger and commercial cars up to 25% starting next week. Trump's logic remains the same: "Want to avoid tariffs — build factories in the US." This decision hits the German and French economies just as Europe is coping with an energy shock. Essentially, Washington has opened a second front in a trade war — this time against Brussels.
The European Commission, anticipating a prolonged conflict with the Trump administration, has taken a historic step. It announced a broad overhaul of antitrust policy to allow European corporations to merge into giant conglomerates. Key changes include:
On the eve of the midterms, Trump finds himself in a "dignity trap." Any deal with Iran now would look worse than the 2015 agreement and would be a personal humiliation. So the president is betting on a prolonged blockade, hoping to wear Tehran down before the U.S. economy collapses. But time is against everyone. The world stands at the brink of a second decade-defining inflation shock comparable in scale to the COVID-19 pandemic. In Asia, some countries are already introducing shorter workweeks to save energy. Oil strategists warn of a scenario that "will not be pretty." If strategic reserves (SPR) are exhausted, physical oil prices could spike in a way that paralyzes global trade.
The stock market, until now fed by strong tech earnings, may face a harsh awakening. If the Strait of Hormuz is not truly reopened in the coming weeks, corporate profits will be burned away by prohibitive fuel and logistics costs. The US has already spent $25 billion on munitions, but the main battle — for the survival of the global dollar system — is only beginning. Despite oil firmly above $110 and the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at multiyear highs, the US equity market displays remarkable resilience. The rally is fueled by relentless corporate optimism, where company revenues and an investment boom in artificial intelligence offset geopolitical chaos.
Tech giants have turned AI into the economy's chief engine: combined plans by Google, Amazon and Microsoft to invest in data infrastructure and chips have swelled to $725 billion. This liquidity surge into innovation not only supports equity prices but also lays the foundation for long-term productivity growth that analysts say could help the US absorb the current commodity shock. Meanwhile, some are shocked by the courtroom battle between Elon Musk and OpenAI, which is growing more ironically detailed by the day. Under cross-examination, Musk said he was essentially a victim of his own trust, failing to dig into the legal fine print of the company's shift to commercial status. Read the small print!
The billionaire claims Sam Altman fed him promises of a "non-commercial future" for AI while OpenAI morphed into a giant valued near $800 billion. Musk, who invested about $38 million in the project, now seeks an unprecedented $150 billion compensation and insists the organization be returned to its altruistic roots. OpenAI's defense counters that Musk was well aware of the company's developmental direction and that his anger stems from lost control and competition from his own xAI project. While OpenAI is mired in litigation, the AI industry is undergoing a tectonic shift.
Anthropic is preparing to strike a crushing blow to its main rival's leadership. The company has received capital-raising offers that could lift its valuation to an astonishing $850–900 billion. If the board approves the round in May, Anthropic would officially become the world's most valuable AI company, overtaking OpenAI. The success is supported by explosive annual revenue growth to $30 billion and strategic Pentagon contracts. Notably, while Anthropic distances itself from some controversial initiatives, the US Navy plans to hire the startup Domino to detect Iranian mines in the Persian Gulf. This underscores a new reality: AI has become not only an economic asset but a critical military one.
Washington is preparing for a historic transfer of power at the world's financial center. The Senate committee has already approved Kevin Warsh's nomination for Fed chair, and his vision for monetary policy promises to be a "cold shower" for the old guard. Unlike Jerome Powell, Warsh intends to step away from the dual mandate and focus solely on inflation. His willingness to use "trimmed" inflation measures could pave the way for earlier and deeper rate cuts, which have already enlivened the banking sector and the gold market. Investors should be cautious, though: Warsh is a staunch opponent of quantitative easing (QE). His plan to lower rates while simultaneously shrinking the balance sheet (QT) could strip the financial system of the accustomed excess liquidity, posing a severe test for markets used to central?bank support.
"Federal Reserve independence is not the right to do whatever you want, but the duty to follow the law in the interest of price stability, regardless of political noise from the Oval Office," Warsh emphasized during his hearings. Against this backdrop, the dollar index fell below 98, erasing recent gains. The weakening of the US currency, together with high bond yields (around 4.35%) and expensive oil, indicates investors no longer see the dollar as an unconditional safe haven. Inflationary pressure fed by the energy crisis is beginning to erode long-term dollar support, forcing markets to seek alternative capital protections as living and business costs keep rising.
04 May, 02:00 / Australia / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Apr, final) / prev.: 51.0 / actual: 48.9 / forecast: 51.0 / AUD/USD – up
In March, the Australian manufacturing PMI fell to 48.9, indicating deterioration. April is forecast to return to expansion at 51.0. If confirmed, this would signal improving business conditions in the industrial sector and strengthen the Australian dollar.
04 May, 04:00 / Australia / Melbourne Institute inflation index (Apr m/m) / prev.: -0.2% / actual: 1.3% / forecast: 1.1% / AUD/USD – down
In March, the monthly inflation index in Australia rose 1.3% — the strongest increase on record, reversing previous deflation. The sharp rebound reflects fuel price rises and logistics problems. April is forecast at 1.1%; confirmation would keep import-driven inflation risks elevated and weigh on the AUD.
04 May, 04:30 / Australia / Building approvals (Mar) / prev.: -15.7% / actual: 14.0% / forecast: 13.2% / AUD/USD – down
Building approvals rebounded 14% in February after a deep January slump, well above the long-run average. March is expected to slow, indicating sector stabilization and potentially weakening the AUD.
04 May, 10:55 / Germany / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Apr, prelim) / prev.: 50.9 / actual: 52.2 / forecast: 51.2 / EUR/USD – down
Germany's manufacturing PMI reached 52.2 in March, the best in years. Preliminary April data point to a slowdown due to geopolitical uncertainty and rising metal and plastics costs. If the forecast holds, demand cooling and higher input inflation will weigh on the euro.
04 May, 11:00 / Eurozone / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Apr, prelim) / prev.: 50.8 / actual: 51.6 / forecast: 52.2 / EUR/USD – up
The eurozone manufacturing PMI was 51.6 in March. April is forecast to improve to 52.2, driven by new orders and export demand despite inflationary pressure. If realized, this would confirm accelerating production and strengthen the euro.
04 May, 17:00 / US / Durable goods orders (Mar) / prev.: 0.0% / actual: 0.0% / forecast: 0.4% / USDX – up
New orders for durable goods were unchanged in February at $619.6 billion, exceeding expectations of a decline. Demand for nondefense aircraft plunged 28.6%, hurting transportation; gains in machinery, primary metals and fabricated metal products offset this. Analysts expect a rise in March orders; confirmation of a 0.4% increase would signal recovering industrial demand and support the dollar.
5 May, 02:00 / Australia / S&P Global Services PMI (Apr) / prev.: 52.8 / actual: 46.3 / forecast: 50.3 / AUD/USD – up
Australia's services PMI fell to 46.3 in March, the lowest in several years. The sector was weighed down by:
Preliminary estimates for April point to a recovery and a return of the index to expansion. Companies are expected to report improved business conditions and rising employment. Confirmation of the forecast would mark an exit of the services sector from contraction and support the Australian dollar.
5 May, 07:30, 08:30 / Australia / RBA rate decision, press conference / prev.: 3.85% / actual: 4.10% / forecast: 4.35% / AUD/USD – up
At its March meeting, the RBA raised the policy rate to 4.10%, citing renewed inflationary pressures and tight labour markets. The regulator noted production constraints were stronger than expected and that Middle East geopolitical tensions add further price risks. Further tightening is projected for May. If the RBA raises the cash rate to the forecast 4.35%, it will confirm the bank's resolve to fight inflation and strengthen the AUD.
5 May, 15:30 / Canada / Exports in trade balance (CAD deficit) (Mar) / prev.: 62.32 bn / actual: 66.31 bn / forecast: 65.5 bn / USD/CAD – up
Canadian exports jumped 6.4% in February to CAD 66.3 billion. Growth was broad-based, led by autos and parts (shipments up more than a quarter), strong mineral exports (notably gold to the UK) and agricultural exports (grain shipments to China). Some moderation is expected in March. If the actual matches the forecast, it would signal slowing foreign-earnings inflows and could weigh on the Canadian dollar.
5 May, 15:30 / Canada / Imports in trade balance (Mar) / prev.: 66.5 bn / actual: 72.05 bn / forecast: 68.9 bn / USD/CAD – up
Canadian imports hit a record CAD 72.1 billion in February, up 8.4% month-on-month. The bulk of the increase came from:
The sharp rise widened the trade deficit to a six-month high. Analysts expect imports to fall in March, reflecting cooling domestic demand for foreign goods; however, a continued deficit would weigh on the CAD.
5 May, 15:30 / US / Exports in trade balance (Mar) / prev.: 302.2 bn / actual: 314.8 bn / forecast: 319.1 bn / USDX – up
US exports rose 4.2% in February to $314.8 billion, a record level. Key contributors were gold and natural gas shipments, and services exports such as tourism and financial services. The rise followed legal uncertainty after parts of global tariffs were struck down by the Supreme Court. Further increases are expected in March; confirmation of the forecast would underscore US export competitiveness and support the dollar.
5 May, 15:30 / US / Imports in trade balance (Mar) / prev.: 356.9 bn / actual: 372.1 bn / forecast: 380.5 bn / USDX – up
US imports rose to $372.1 billion in February, the highest in a year. US companies continued heavy purchases of:
Analysts expect the trend to continue in March. If imports reach the forecast, sustained domestic demand for capital and consumer goods would support the dollar.
5 May, 16:45 / US / S&P Global Services PMI (Apr, preliminary) / prev.: 51.7 / actual: 49.8 / forecast: 51.3 / USDX – up
US services PMI fell to 49.8 in March under pressure from the energy shock. Preliminary April data point to a rebound out of stagnation. Firms report rising costs that they are passing on to customers via record price increases. If the final report confirms the forecast, it would indicate the service economy adapting to war-related risks and bolster the dollar.
5 May, 17:00 / US / ISM Services PMI (Apr) / prev.: 56.1 / actual: 54.0 / forecast: 53.8 / USDX – down
The ISM services index fell to 54 in March, reflecting a slowdown in activity and the first employment reduction in months. Rapid fuel rally due to the Iran conflict and logistic disruptions were dominant themes in business comments. April is expected to show further cooling. If the actual equals the forecast, it would confirm inflation's negative impact on services and weigh on the dollar.
5 May, 17:00 / US / Job openings (Mar) / prev.: 7.240 mln / actual: 6.882 mln / forecast: 6.870 mln / USDX – down
US job openings fell to 6.882 million in February, with the biggest declines in:
Overall, layoffs remained stable. The March report is expected to show continued cooling in hiring, signalling easing tightness in the labour market and putting downward pressure on the dollar.
5 May, 17:00 / US / New-home sales (Feb) / prev.: 0.712 mln / actual: 0.587 mln / forecast: 0.610 mln / USDX – up
New-home sales fell to 0.587 million units in January — a significant drop from December. The historical average is about 656,320 units, and current starts remain far below mid-2000s peaks. Analysts expect some recovery in May; if March sales meet the forecast, it would indicate revived housing demand and support the dollar.
5 May, 17:00 / US / Quits (Feb) / prev.: 3.131 mln / actual: 2.974 mln / forecast: 2.950 mln / USDX – down
US quits fell to 2.974 million in February, a four-year low. The sharpest declines were in:
While durable-goods manufacturing showed the opposite trend. The quit rate, reflecting worker confidence, dropped to 1.9%. Further declines would signal lower labour mobility and weaken the dollar.
5 May, 17:10 / US / RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May, preliminary) / prev.: 47.5 / actual: 42.8 / forecast: 42.0 / USDX – down
Economic optimism fell to 42.8 in April, the lowest since summer 2024 amid Middle East concerns and high fuel prices. The index has been in pessimistic territory for eight months. A further drop in May would reflect growing consumer doubts about the economy and federal policy, weakening the dollar.
5 May, 23:30 / US / API weekly crude inventories / prev.: -4.4 mln bbl / actual: -1.79 mln bbl / Brent – volatile
API data for the week to April 24 showed a draw of 1.79 million barrels, below expectations. Large declines were also seen in gasoline and distillate stocks, and there were outflows from Cushing storage. With ongoing fuel shortages and geopolitical risk, oil (Brent) is likely to remain highly volatile.
6 May, 02:00 / Australia / AI Group Business Activity Index (Apr) / prev.: 1.5 pts / actual: -23.6 pts / forecast: -27.0 pts / AUD/USD – down
In March, Australia's industry index posted a record drop of nearly 20 points to -23.6 amid the energy crisis. Falls in new orders and shipments were driven by uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and supply-chain disruptions. The April report is expected to show further deterioration. Continued pressure on selling prices and labour shortages should keep activity depressed and weigh on the Australian dollar.
6 May, 03:30 / Japan / Services PMI (Mar) / prev.: 53.8 pts / actual: 53.4 pts / forecast: 51.2 pts / USD/JPY – up
Japan's services PMI was 53.4 in March, remaining firmly in expansion territory. This reflects an improvement in the service sector. April is expected to show a slowdown in the pace of expansion; confirmation of the forecast would signal cooling demand in services and pressure on the yen.
6 May, 04:45 / China / RatingDog Services Business Activity Index (Apr) / prev.: 56.7 pts / actual: 52.1 pts / forecast: 52.0 pts / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up
China's services activity fell to 52.1 in March, off February's three-year high. New-order growth slowed to its weakest in 12 months, though domestic demand remained the main driver. Firms began trimming staff at the fastest pace in six months. Business confidence stays positive thanks to expansion plans and expectations of improving conditions. April stabilization would support the sector's resilience.
6 May, 10:00 / Germany / S&P Global Services PMI (Apr) / prev.: 53.5 pts / actual: 50.9 pts / forecast: 46.9 pts / EUR/USD – down
Germany's services PMI was 50.9 in March. Preliminary April estimates point to a sharp fall to 46.9 — the deepest contraction since late 2022. Forecasts indicate a significant drop in business volumes and input-cost inflation accelerating to multi-year highs. Confirmation would signal a serious sectoral crisis and weaken the euro.
6 May, 11:00 / Eurozone / S&P Global Services PMI (Apr) / prev.: 51.9 pts / actual: 50.2 pts / forecast: 47.4 pts / EUR/USD – down
The eurozone services PMI was 50.2 in March. Preliminary April estimates expect a further fall to 47.4. Main headwinds include rising energy prices and weakening consumer demand due to the Iran war. Germany is forecast to suffer the steepest decline, and overall input costs across the bloc are set to hit multi-year highs. Confirmation would point to a sharp contraction in private sector activity and weigh on the euro.
6 May, 11:30 / United Kingdom / S&P Global Services PMI (Apr) / prev.: 53.9 pts / actual: 50.5 pts / forecast: 52.0 pts / GBP/USD – up
UK services PMI fell to 50.5 in March. April is forecast to recover thanks to tech investment and marketing initiatives. Despite record inflationary pressures and higher fuel costs, activity is expected to accelerate, indicating resilience in UK services and supporting the pound.
6 May, 12:00 / Eurozone / Retail sales (Mar) / prev.: 2.1% / actual: 1.7% / forecast: 1.4% / EUR/USD – down
Eurozone retail sales growth slowed to 1.7% y/y in February from 2.1% in January. The long-run average is about 1.18% y/y; current figures remain within modest volatility. March is expected to show further cooling in consumer activity, pointing to weaker domestic demand and a softer euro.
6 May, 12:00 / Eurozone / Producer prices (Mar) / prev.: -2.0% / actual: -3.0% / forecast: 0.6% / EUR/USD – up
Eurozone producer prices fell 3.0% y/y in February — the largest decline in about 18 months, following moderate declines in prior months. March is forecast to reverse sharply into positive territory, which would signal a return of inflationary pressure at the production level and strengthen the euro.
6 May, 15:15 / US / ADP private payrolls (weekly) / prev.: 66k / actual: 62k / forecast: 79k / USDX – up
US private sector firms added 62,000 jobs in March, showing some labour market resilience despite uncertainty and slower immigration. Gains were concentrated in healthcare and education, while retail and manufacturing cut staff. A stronger reading in the upcoming report (79k) would confirm US economic strength and support the dollar.
6 May, 17:00 / Canada / Ivey PMI (Apr) / prev.: 56.6 pts / actual: 49.7 pts / forecast: 49.9 pts / USD/CAD – down
Canada's Ivey PMI fell to 49.7 in March, signaling a shift toward contraction. The report recorded rising inflationary pressure and supply chain slowdowns, though the employment index edged up slightly. April is forecast to show a weak recovery but remain in stagnation, confirming stabilization at low levels and supporting the CAD relative to negative expectations.
6 May, 17:30 / US / EIA crude oil inventories (weekly) / prev.: 1.925 mln bbl / actual: -6.233 mln bbl / forecast: 3.891 mln bbl / Brent – down
U.S. crude stocks for the week to April 24 fell by 6.233 million barrels — a much larger draw than expected. Refinery activity was up, and gasoline and distillate stocks also plunged. Analysts expect inventories to rebuild in the next report; if a 3.891 million barrel build is recorded, it would signal market rebalancing and push Brent prices lower.
Scheduled speeches of central bank policymakers (selected):
4 May, 14:30 / Eurozone / Piero Cipollone (ECB Executive Board) — EUR/USD 4 May, 15:30 / Eurozone / Luis de Guindos (ECB Vice?President) — EUR/USD 4 May, 19:50 / USA / John Williams (President, New York Fed) — USDX 4 May, 20:05 / Eurozone / Joachim Nagel (ECB Governing Council) — EUR/USD 4 May, 22:30 / Canada / Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada) — USD/CAD 5 May, 08:30 / Australia / Michele Bullock (RBA Governor) — AUD/USD 5 May, 15:30 / Eurozone / Christine Lagarde (ECB President) — EUR/USD 5 May, 17:00 / USA / Michelle Bowman (Federal Reserve Board) — USDX 5 May, 18:40 / Eurozone / Philip Lane (ECB) — EUR/USD 5 May, 19:30 / UK / Sam Woods (Deputy Governor, BoE) — GBP/USD 5 May, 19:30 / USA / Michael Barr (Federal Reserve Vice?Chair for Supervision) — USDX 6 May, 04:00 / New Zealand / Adrian Orr / NZD/USD 6 May, 10:30 / Eurozone / Claudia Buch (ECB Supervisory Board) — EUR/USD 6 May, 11:00 / Eurozone / Philip Lane (ECB) — EUR/USD 6 May, 11:20 / Eurozone / Piero Cipollone (ECB) — EUR/USD 6 May, 12:45 / Eurozone / Claudia Buch (ECB) — EUR/USD 6 May, 16:30 / USA / Alberto Musalem (President, St. Louis Fed) — USDX 6 May, 20:00 / USA / Austan Goolsbee (President, Chicago Fed) — USDX 6 May, 20:30 / USA / Beth Hammack (President, Cleveland Fed) — USDX 6 May, 23:15 / Canada / Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada) — USD/CAD
Also scheduled are remarks by other senior central bank officials. Their comments typically trigger FX volatility as they may signal future policy intentions.
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