The EUR/USD currency pair showed no interesting movements during trading on Wednesday. There was a slight decrease throughout the day, but this decline mirrored the trend observed over the past few days. Volatility remains minimal, and important macroeconomic publications in the U.S. have had virtually no impact on the pair's movements. It is worth noting that not all reports yielded figures that traders could react to. The second estimate of GDP for the second quarter showed the same value as the first estimate—1.5%. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index reported a figure that completely matched forecasts at 0.2%. Thus, traders could only react to the durable goods orders report, which showed a 1.1% gain, while forecasts were 0.5%. It was this report that prompted a slight strengthening of the dollar, but all traders understand that a 20-30-pip move is not significant. The upward trend remains intact, as indicated by the trendline. Today, low volatility is likely to persist.
In the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formally generated on Wednesday, but acting on them made no sense given the low volatility. Initially, the pair bounced off the 1.1655-1.1665 area and then settled below it. Formally, the decline may continue today, but all traders can see that market movements are virtually nonexistent.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. Considering all the events of recent months, we believe that the euro should continue to rise confidently even without local support. Currently, there are no growth factors for the U.S. dollar, so we continue to anticipate upward movement.
On Thursday, novice traders may consider short positions with targets at 1.1584-1.1594 if the price bounces from the 1.1655-1.1665 area. Long positions can be opened if the price establishes itself above the 1.1655-1.1665 area, with targets at 1.1745-1.1754.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1366-1.1377, 1.1461-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1665, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837. On Thursday, Germany will publish its consumer confidence index, while the U.S. will report unemployment claims. Both reports are secondary; hence, we do not expect any reaction to them.
Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.
Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.
Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
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