The EUR/USD currency pair continued its total collapse on Tuesday. In general, there is no point in listing which country in the Middle East launched rockets over the past 24 hours. The key issue is this: there is no talk of a quick resolution to the conflict. Recall that Trump's two previous military operations lasted less than a day. Initially, Trump struck Iranian nuclear facilities last summer, and earlier this year, he orchestrated the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. In both cases, it was a blitzkrieg. Now, however, we are witnessing a full-fledged war (not just a special operation) that could last not only a long time but an extremely long time. Notably, Trump does not rule out deploying ground troops to Iran.

It is worth noting that Iran has lived under conditions of constant military conflict with neighboring countries for decades. The country has been under global sanctions from most of the world for about 50 years. Therefore, a new war and a new economic crisis are merely mundane occurrences. Based on this factor alone, one could assume that Iran is ready to fight for as long as necessary. But are the US and other Persian Gulf countries, which are significantly more financially prosperous and currently losing millions and billions of dollars due to this conflict, ready for that?

Additionally, it should be noted that Iran ranks 17th in the world by land area and, according to 2017 estimates, occupies the same position in terms of population. This is not a small country that can be "taken" in a couple of days, even with the US's financial and military capabilities. With a population of 81 million, even if half of Iran's population supports the overthrow of the current regime, the remaining 40.5 million will not vanish in an instant.

Furthermore, most of Iran's critical infrastructure is underground, while the infrastructure of its enemies is located above ground, as is customary worldwide. Therefore, Iran can easily strike at regional refineries, gas storage facilities, and so on, provoking price increases all over the world. Oil prices are rising steadily, and gas prices in Europe have doubled in just two days. Sooner or later, the question will arise as to whether it was worth attacking Iran when the entire world is currently suffering from the consequences.

Of course, Trump does not care about the opinions of the global community. He is also indifferent to his own voters' opinions. He will continue military actions as long as he deems necessary. But what objectives does Trump intend to achieve? He can claim to have destroyed nuclear facilities and potential threats today, just as he did last summer. Ultimately, no one will be able to verify whether uranium stocks have genuinely been destroyed. As mentioned earlier, almost all of Iran's nuclear facilities are underground, so satellite photographs reveal nothing about their condition, and Iran is unlikely to share information about the success of American air and missile strikes.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of March 4 is 88 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1500 and 1.1676 on Wednesday. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed upward, indicating the continuation of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has once again entered oversold territory, signaling a potential resumption of the upward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1597

R2 – 1.1719

R3 – 1.1841

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its correction within the upward trend. The global fundamental backdrop remains of immense importance to the market and remains highly negative for the dollar. The pair spent seven months in a sideways channel; it is likely now time to resume the global trend of 2025. The dollar currently lacks a fundamental basis for long-term growth. At this time, we are observing another global correction. If the price is below the moving average, short positions could be considered, with targets at 1.1500 and 1.1475, supported by technical factors and the complex geopolitical situation. Above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1963 and 1.2085.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• The linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, then the trend is strong.
• The moving average line (settings: 20.0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trading direction.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will move over the next day, based on current volatility indicators.
• The CCI indicator's entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates an impending reversal of the trend in the opposite direction.